Is TikTok getting banned? Biden signed the TikTok bill into law. Here's what happens next.

For years, TikTok leadership tried to convince the United States that the popular social media app used by as many as 170 million Americans was not a threat to national security.

It lost that fight Tuesday night when the Senate passed the sell-or-ban TikTok bill with overwhelming bipartisan support.

Tucked into a $95 billion foreign aid package, the legislation gives Chinese parent company ByteDance up to a year to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations or face a ban. President Joe Biden signed the bill into law Wednesday.

Time hasn't run out for TikTok just yet. The legislation will likely face legal challenges from TikTok and its supporters and government resistance from Beijing. 

"This unconstitutional law is a TikTok ban, and we will challenge it in court," TikTok said in a statement Wednesday. "We believe the facts and the law are clearly on our side, and we will ultimately prevail."

ByteDance would shut down TikTok rather than sell if it exhausts all legal options, four sources told Reuters.

"TikTok has drawn its battle sword, and the upcoming legal battle will be lengthy and intense," said Emarketer principal analyst Jasmine Enberg.

Is TikTok going to be banned?

In March, the House voted overwhelmingly to approve a bill to force ByteDance's hand. The bill then moved to the Senate, where its fate was uncertain.

Last week House Speaker Mike Johnson tied it to a foreign aid package for Ukraine and Israel, putting it on a fast track to becoming law and increasing the possibility of a ban in the United States. 

The House on Saturday approved the emergency spending package on a bipartisan 360-to-58 vote. The Senate passed the measure 79-18 Tuesday.

TikTok has said it will exhaust every available legal avenue before considering a sale. It has successfully fought back similar measures.

Why does the US want TikTok to sell?

Fans of the app flooded lawmakers with angry calls protesting the TikTok legislation. But lawmakers say control of the app by a foreign adversary poses too great a risk, including the potential for Beijing to use it to collect intelligence on U.S. users and to spread Chinese government propaganda on sensitive topics such as the Israel-Hamas war.

"Many Americans, particularly young Americans, are rightfully skeptical. At the end of the day, they've not seen what Congress has seen. They've not been in the classified briefings that Congress has held, which have delved more deeply into some of the threats posed by foreign control of TikTok," Mark Warner (D-Va.), Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on the Senate floor Tuesday.

TikTok says it has never been asked to provide U.S. user data to the Chinese government and wouldn’t if asked.

"The fact is, we have invested billions of dollars to keep U.S. data safe and our platform free from outside influence and manipulation," TikTok said. "This ban would devastate 7 million businesses and silence 170 million Americans. As we continue to challenge this unconstitutional ban, we will continue investing and innovating to ensure TikTok remains a space where Americans of all walks of life can safely come to share their experiences, find joy, and be inspired."

The legislation has heightened tensions with China. Last week Apple removed several apps including Meta’s WhatsApp and Threads from its app store in China at Beijing’s request in apparent retaliation for the legislation.

TikTok CEO Shou Chew: 'This is a ban'

In a two-minute video posted on the TikTok app, TikTok CEO Shou Chew reassured TikTok users, saying: "Rest assured, we aren't going anywhere."

But TikTok's CEO also argued the new law is a government attempt to ban the popular app.

"Make no mistake: this is a ban − a ban on TikTok and a ban on you and your voice," Chew said. "Politicians may say otherwise, but don't get confused. Many who sponsored the bill admit a TikTok ban is the ultimate goal."

Senators deny TikTok bill is a 'ban bill'

Senators who supported the legislation denied it was a "ban bill." Warner said lawmakers hope Tiktok "will continue under new ownership."

"For several months now, we’ve heard from constituents how much they value TikTok as a creative platform," he said. "To those Americans I would emphasize, this is not a ban of a service you appreciate."

TikTok has said it considers any law that would force a sale the equivalent of a ban because of the hurdles facing a sale. 

Beijing can block a sale or it can refuse to allow a sale that includes the powerful TikTok algorithm that recommends videos to users.

"Replicating TikTok’s algorithm is a nearly impossible task, as rival Meta would attest to," Enberg said. "TikTok’s ability to serve up relevant and entertaining content to its users is unparalleled in the social media world and what keeps US users on the app for 54 minutes per day."

When would ByteDance be forced to sell TikTok?

The bill itself gives ByteDance nearly a year to divest TikTok – nine months, with a possible three-month extension – far longer than the six-month deadline the original House measure proposed. 

“We think a year is an ample time to allow potential investors to come forward for due diligence to be completed and for lawyers to draw up and finalize contracts,” Sen. Maria Cantwell, (D-Wash.), chair of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, said Tuesday on the Senate floor.

Who is interested in buying TikTok?

"While the price tag will be eye-popping, TikTok's strategic value and consumer platform will have a number of financial and tech strategic players interested," Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said.

Investor groups and major tech giants including Microsoft, Apple and Oracle will consider bids, according to Ives. He also expects joint bids from a handful of Big Tech companies.

Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and "Shark Tank" star Kevin O’Leary have also expressed interest in buying TikTok.

Unlikely to bid are Google and Meta. "While many would want to get their hands on TikTok’s coveted algorithm, most of those who could afford to buy the app wouldn’t be able to clear antitrust hurdles," Enberg said.

An initial public offering or a spin-off are two other potential outcomes, according to Ives.

How would a TikTok ban work?

If the TikTok ban takes effect, the app would disappear from the Apple and Google app stores. It would still be available on the phones of users who downloaded it but TikTok would not be able to update the app or send bug fixes or security patches so over time it would become unusable.

A TikTok ban would also bar web hosting companies from distributing the app.

Banning the app won’t necessarily stop TikTok fans from using it. In 2020 when India banned TikTok after an incident at the Chinese border, TikTok users found workarounds to circumvent the ban.

Those strategies include using a VPN (virtual private network) or changing your location on your phone to fool the app stores. Another option is "side-loading" − downloading and installing a bootleg version of the TikTok app from the internet − but doing so carries the risk of downloading malware.

Where do Biden and Trump stand on a TikTok ban?

Biden supports a forced sale of TikTok but has not called for a ban of the app, his top science advisor said at Semafor's World Economy Summit last week.

"The big issue for TikTok from a national security perspective is about the vast amount of information that the platform is able to collect about people and specifically the fact that because of its ownership there’s a direct line to the People’s Republic of China, which in the geopolitics of today is a deeply concerning issue," Arati Prabhakar, the White House Director of Science and Technology Policy, said.

Former president Donald Trump, who tried to ban TikTok in 2020, posted to Truth Social on Monday: "Just so everyone knows, especially the young people, Crooked Joe Biden is responsible for banning TikTok."

Now that Trump has changed his mind about TikTok, ByteDance could wait out the election to see which party has control after November.

Who opposes the TikTok bill? Free speech advocates

Free speech advocates have spoken out against the possibility of a TikTok ban. They say banning TikTok is the wrong way to address concerns about the practices of social media companies.

"Longstanding Supreme Court precedent protects Americans' First Amendment right to access information, ideas, and media from abroad. By banning TikTok, the bill would infringe on this right, and with no real pay-off,"Nadine Farid Johnson, policy director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, said in a statement. “China and other foreign adversaries could still purchase Americans’ sensitive data from data brokers on the open market. And they could still engage in disinformation campaigns using American-owned platforms.”

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a science and technology policy think tank, also opposes the TikTok bill.

"The TikTok ban is bad policy, plain and simple," the foundation's vice president, Daniel Castro, said in a statement. And, he said, "it will not stop China’s techno-nationalist agenda."

Who would benefit from a TikTok ban?

YouTube, Facebook and Instagram would benefit most from a TikTok ban.

"We would expect Meta to be the primary recipient of redistributed TikTok revenue should the company exit the U.S., with Google the likely No. 2 beneficiary," said Wedbush Securities analyst Scott Devitt.

Devitt said a recent survey of TikTok users found that 60% would switch to Facebook or Instagram and 19% would primarily replace TikTok with YouTube. 

"Ultimately, users will go where their favorite creators are, and advertisers will follow their lead. That makes Meta and Google the biggest beneficiaries of a potential ban or surrounding uncertainty, as Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts are the most natural TikTok alternatives," Emarketer's Enberg said.

Snapchat and Pinterest could also draw users and advertising dollars from TikTok, analysts say.

YouTube continues to be the No. 1 app with teens. Nine in 10 teens use the app, followed by TikTok (63%), Snapchat (60%) and Instagram (59%), according to Pew Research Center. Teens are less likely to use Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) than they were a decade ago.

X owner Elon Musk conducted a poll on the social media platform, hinting he might bring back mobile video app Vine.  Musk said last week that he opposed banning TikTok.

"In my opinion, TikTok should not be banned in the USA, even though such a ban may benefit the X platform," he wrote on X. "Doing so would be contrary to freedom of speech and expression. It is not what America stands for."

What do Americans think about a TikTok ban?

The American public remains divided. 

Nearly half of the respondents in a CNBC All-America Economic Survey poll taken in March say TikTok should be banned or sold to a non-Chinese company.

Forty percent of Democrats and 60% of Republicans support a ban or a sale of the popular app, the survey found.